How we build a scenario

Together, we create the scenario. It runs on our world.

Our world already models how people, markets and money behave. With you, we create the scenario on top of it: your company, your landscape and the people around your decision. Here is how it works, and why it behaves like the real thing.

PeopleIndustry dynamicsCustomersRivalsLenders and investorsRegulationMediaRandomness
Your scenariocreated together
Our world
Stakeholder repliesCompetitor movesBoard reactionsFinancial resultsMarket eventsPress coverageCoachingA debrief that explains
People, industry dynamics, customers, rivals, lenders and investors, regulation, media and randomness are modelled in our world. Your scenario, created together, runs on it and produces stakeholder replies, competitor moves, board reactions, financial results, market events, press coverage, coaching and a debrief.

Create

Your scenario, on our world.

Our world already knows how industries, companies, markets and money behave. What we create with you is the layer on top: your company and its landscape, the challenges ahead, the decisions you face, and the people around them, each with a voice of their own.

Your scenario· Created with you

Your company and its landscape, the challenges ahead, the decisions you face, and the people around them, each with a voice of their own.

Your companyYour landscapeYour challengesYour decisionsYour stakeholders

One piece of news, three voices

The board approves the acquisition.

  • CFO

    We can fund it. Covenant headroom drops to 0.4x, and I want that minuted.

  • Target founder

    You bought my team, not my code. Talk to them before you talk to me.

  • Lead lender

    Noted. We will want monthly reporting from here on.

Populate

Populated by people who want things.

Named people sit around the decision, each with motives, relationships and beliefs of their own. You interact with them, negotiate, learn from them and convince them. The engine spends its deepest reasoning on people, because people, not plans, make or break a decision.

Sales team

Engineers

Customers

Target founder

The target

Wants
His team and product protected
Believes
You will shut down what he builtNot quite true
Tells you, once trusted
Two of his engineers already have offers
Keeps to themselves
Next round
Shares your terms with a rival bidder

Beliefs can be wrong

People act on what they believe, not on the truth. Due diligence reveals what a target really is; a forecast can miss.

Trouble is signalled

Risks build in the background and send warning signs a round ahead. The careful participant sees them coming.

People, not chatbots

Each has a background, a way of speaking, incentives and inside knowledge. Some of it is visible, some you earn through the relationship, and some stays hidden for good.

Ground

Ranges, not guesses.

Every number the engine uses is a range with a source, researched or recorded as expert judgement. Each round it draws inside the range, and the quality of your plan moves where it draws. Change the judgement and watch.

We use no paywalled data. What a client shares for its own scenario is used only in that client's simulations.

Illustrative ranges · draw #1

Your plan was judged

Integration cost · % of deal value

Industry study
6.4%
Low 3%Typical 6%High 10%

Key people who leave in year one · % of key talent

Practice research
24.1%
Low 10%Typical 20%High 35%

Revenue dip in a model transition · % of affected revenue

Expert judgement
11.6%
Low 5%Typical 12%High 25%

Engine V1 to V2

From a chain of steps to one world.

Our first engine was tested with alpha testers. It proved that leaders take a simulated decision seriously when the people and the numbers push back. It also showed the limit of a chain of steps: each step kept its own picture of what had happened.

V1 · alpha testedV2 · rolling out
One world

Plan reader

EBITDA 12.6m

Finance

EBITDA 12.4m

Board

EBITDA 12.1m

Stakeholders

EBITDA 11.9m

Narration

EBITDA 12.8m

Report

EBITDA 12.2m

Start

Three scenarios, ready to run.

Our templates are built on the same world and ready to use: to build decision muscle across a leadership team, to support HR and development objectives, or to rehearse a kind of decision before it is yours to make.

Build

Or build yours with us.

Crafting a scenario around your own decision is simple. It starts with a conversation, and you stay in control of what goes in.

  1. 1

    Talk it through

    Over a call or a workshop, we go through the decisions coming up, what is critical, and who could make or break them.

    Scoping call

    • The decisions coming up
    • What is critical, and by when
    • Who could make or break them
  2. 2

    Choose how close to reality

    Your real numbers and people, a close twin, or a fictional company that teaches the same lesson. You also decide how much chance is in play.

    Closeness to reality

    Role of chance

  3. 3

    Bring what you have

    Internal research, plans, an organisation chart, anything that matters. It stays yours and is used only in your simulations.

    • Board pack, Q3.pdf
    • Organisation chart.xlsx
    • Customer interviews.docx
    • Integration plan draft.pptx

    Yours. Used only in your simulations.

  4. 4

    We fill in the gaps

    The NewReLLM team researches and writes the rest: the stakeholders and their voices, the landscape, the challenges and when they land.

    • Stakeholders written, each with a voice
    • Landscape mapped: rivals, customers, lenders
    • Challenges scheduled across the rounds
    • Numbers checked against researched ranges
  5. 5

    You sign off

    You review the scenario, the stakeholders and the role of chance, and approve it before anyone takes part.

    Scenario approved

    Stakeholders, landscape, challenges and role of chance

    Signed off
  6. 6

    Agent testing

    We test the scenario thoroughly with naive and diverse AI agents to calibrate its complexity and difficulty. Their scores also become the benchmark your people try to beat.

    Agent runs

    1,000 runs
    • Naive
      34
    • Cautious
      52
    • Aggressive
      47
    • By the book
      66
    • Contrarian
      58
    Difficulty calibrated: demandingBenchmark to beat: 66
  7. 7

    Ready to run

    Within a few working days of sign-off, the scenario is often ready for your people.

    Scenario live

    Often within a few working days

    Live

Ready when you are.

Run a template or build your own, as a workshop, at your own pace, or as a programme.

See how we engage